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    中国大型城市群高分辨率碳源汇监测及碳中和进程评估

    High resolution carbon source-sink monitoring and carbon neutrality assessment of large urban agglomerations in China

    • 摘要: 在中国城市尺度准确监测碳汇与碳排放对于评估其碳中和进程具有重要意义。为精确刻画高分辨率下的碳源汇特征,开发了一个城市净碳排放的集成模型,并将其应用于中国长三角城市群作为案例研究。首先,采用CASA模型计算了2021—2022年月度净初级生产力(NPP)时空分布,结果显示:NPP具有显著的季节性变化,主要城市夏季固碳量峰值可达70~100 g/(m2·月),而冬季普遍低于15 g/(m2·月),空间上呈现城市建成区低、南部植被区高的分布特征。此外,提出了一种改进的基于夜间灯光和人口加权的高分辨率碳排放空间分解方法,将省级碳排放分解为栅格级水平,结果显示:碳排放高值集中在城市中心,单网格CO2排放超5 000 t。最后,计算了250 m分辨率下的净碳排放(NCE)时空分布,结果显示:大多数城市NCE超过700 \mathrmg /(m2·a),仅安徽池州、宣城等少数城市表现为碳汇。长三角区域总体碳汇占碳排放的比例为13.1%,反映该城市群当前净碳排放水平较高。城市间NCE差异显著,上海市年均NCE显著高于杭州、湖州等植被资源丰富城市。模型能够准确捕捉城市尺度碳汇与碳排放特征,相比同类数据产品具有更精细的时空分辨率和更突出的空间变化细节。由于数据的全覆盖性和方法的普适性,模型可应用于中国其他城市区域的净碳排放分布计算,这有助于理解城市碳中和水平差异,为城市化发展和低碳城市建设提供决策支持。

       

      Abstract: Accurate monitoring of carbon sinks and carbon emissions at the urban scale in China is of great significance for assessing the progress towards carbon neutrality. To precisely characterize carbon source-sink features at high resolution, an integrated model for urban net carbon emissions was developed and applied to the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration in China as a case study. Firstly, the CASA model was employed to calculate the spatiotemporal distribution of monthly net primary productivity (NPP) for 2021—2022. The results reveal significant seasonal variations in NPP, with peak carbon sequestration during summer reaching 70–100 g/(m2·month) in major cities, while winter values generally remained below 15 g/(m2·month). Spatially, NPP exhibited a pattern of lower values in urban built-up areas and higher values in the vegetated southern regions. Additionally, an improved high-resolution spatial disaggregation method for carbon emissions, based on nighttime light data and population weighting, was proposed to downscale provincial-level emissions to a grid level. Results indicate that high carbon emission values are concentrated in urban centers, with per-grid emissions exceeding 5 000 t. Finally, the spatiotemporal distribution of net carbon emissions (NCE) was calculated at a 250 m resolution. The findings show that NCE in most cities exceeds 700 g/(m2·a), with only a few cities, such as Chizhou and Xuancheng in Anhui Province, acting as carbon sinks. The overall carbon sink proportion relative to total carbon emissions in the YRD region is 13.1%, reflecting a currently high level of net carbon emissions in this urban agglomeration. Significant disparities in NCE exist among cities, with Shanghai exhibiting markedly higher annual NCE compared to cities rich in vegetation resources, such as Hangzhou and Huzhou. The model demonstrates a strong capability to accurately capture the characteristics of urban carbon sinks and emissions, offering finer spatiotemporal resolution and more detailed spatial variability than existing data products. Owing to the comprehensive data coverage and methodological generalizability, the model can be applied to estimate NCE distributions in other urban areas across China, thereby aiding in understanding disparities in urban carbon neutrality levels and supporting decision-making for urban development and the construction of low-carbon cities.

       

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