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    全球CCUS技术创新的空间特征及其驱动因素分析

    Spatial dynamics and driving mechanisms of global CCUS technological innovation

    • 摘要: 全球碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)技术在多个国家和区域已有研发与示范项目,但其技术扩散的区域协同与知识外溢研究仍属空白,且专利增长与规模扩张严重脱节。基于2000—2024年IncoPat全球CCUS专利数据,创新性地融合引力模型、Shapley值分解、动态的对数平均分布指数(LMDI)分解及莫兰指数局部空间聚类(Moran’s I/LISA)多种空间分析方法,首次基于“空间—贡献—驱动”综合框架系统刻画全球CCUS专利扩散的演化路径、区域贡献与驱动效应。结果表明,首先,全球CCUS创新重心自欧洲北海与北美墨西哥湾东移至东亚及亚太,展现出自西向东、自北向南的赶超态势;各区域地理贡献呈“引擎—逆引擎—对冲式增长”三元结构,亚太地区为主引擎(55.7%),欧洲(4.8%)与北美(−28.6%)地区分别构成弱拉动与显著抑制的逆引擎,南美与非洲地区因耦合不足表现对冲式增长;动态LMDI分解表明,全球CCUS创新以经济规模与研发效率为主导,贡献率达142%,技术优先度效应平均−25%、投入强度不足5%,体现“量增质弱”的结构性失衡;空间自相关分析显示,2023年除运输环节外,其余环节全局Moran’s I显著正向(I>0.13,I为莫兰指数),但“高–高”聚类仅占5%,逾90%国家处于“低–低”或“不显著”状态,整体布局呈现“大国拉动,小国追赶”马太效应,反映创新扩散仍停留在“点状集中、面状不足”的初级阶段。亟需构建跨区域协同创新网络,完善跨境运输与封存标准化许可,提升技术原创性与质量导向,并因地制宜制定差异化部署策略,以推动CCUS由规模竞争向价值协同与公平扩散转型。

       

      Abstract: Currently, while CCUS technologies have seen widespread research and demonstration efforts across numerous countries and regions, systematic studies on regional coordination and knowledge spillovers in their diffusion remain virtually absent. Moreover, a pronounced disconnect persists between the growth in patenting activity and the actual scale-up of deployment. Drawing on global CCUS patent data from IncoPat spanning 2000 to 2024, this paper innovatively integrates multiple spatial analytical methods, including the gravity model, Shapley decomposition, dynamic Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition, and Moran’ s I/LISA spatial autocorrelation to systematically characterize the evolutionary trajectories, regional contributions, and driving mechanisms of CCUS patent diffusion under a novel “space-contribution-driver” integrative framework. The results reveal that the global CCUS innovation hub has shifted eastward from the North Sea in Europe and the Gulf of Mexico in North America to East Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region, demonstrating a catch-up pattern from west to east and from north to south. Regional spatial contributions exhibit a tripartite structure of “engine–counter-engine–hedging growth,” with the Asia-Pacific region serving as the dominant engine (55.7%), while Europe (4.8%) and North America (−28.6%) act as weak pull and strong counter-driving forces, respectively; South America and Africa display hedging growth patterns due to insufficient spatial coupling. Dynamic LMDI analysis reveals that global CCUS innovation has been primarily driven by economic scale and R&D efficiency, with a combined contribution of 142%; in contrast, the technology prioritization effect averages −25%, and input intensity contributes less than 5%, highlighting a structural imbalance characterized by “quantitative growth without qualitative enhancement.” Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that, as of 2023, all CCUS segments except for transportation exhibit significantly positive global Moran’ s I values (I > 0.13); however, “high–high” clusters comprise only 5% of observations, while over 90% of countries fall into “low–low” or statistically insignificant categories. This pattern reflects a Matthew effect, wherein technological diffusion is dominated by a few leading countries while the majority remain marginal followers, indicating that CCUS innovation diffusion remains at an early stage of “point-based concentration and surface-level insufficiency.” To address these diffusion bottlenecks, it is imperative to establish cross-regional collaborative innovation networks, standardize cross-border permitting systems for CO2 transport and storage, enhance technological originality and quality orientation, and develop context-specific deployment strategies, thereby enabling CCUS to transition from scale-driven competition toward value-based synergy and equitable global diffusion.

       

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