Abstract:
Currently, while CCUS technologies have seen widespread research and demonstration efforts across numerous countries and regions, systematic studies on regional coordination and knowledge spillovers in their diffusion remain virtually absent. Moreover, a pronounced disconnect persists between the growth in patenting activity and the actual scale-up of deployment. Drawing on global CCUS patent data from IncoPat spanning 2000 to 2024, this paper innovatively integrates multiple spatial analytical methods, including the gravity model, Shapley decomposition, dynamic Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition, and Moran’ s I/LISA spatial autocorrelation to systematically characterize the evolutionary trajectories, regional contributions, and driving mechanisms of CCUS patent diffusion under a novel “space-contribution-driver” integrative framework. The results reveal that the global CCUS innovation hub has shifted eastward from the North Sea in Europe and the Gulf of Mexico in North America to East Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region, demonstrating a catch-up pattern from west to east and from north to south. Regional spatial contributions exhibit a tripartite structure of “engine–counter-engine–hedging growth,” with the Asia-Pacific region serving as the dominant engine (55.7%), while Europe (4.8%) and North America (−28.6%) act as weak pull and strong counter-driving forces, respectively; South America and Africa display hedging growth patterns due to insufficient spatial coupling. Dynamic LMDI analysis reveals that global CCUS innovation has been primarily driven by economic scale and R&D efficiency, with a combined contribution of 142%; in contrast, the technology prioritization effect averages −25%, and input intensity contributes less than 5%, highlighting a structural imbalance characterized by “quantitative growth without qualitative enhancement.” Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that, as of 2023, all CCUS segments except for transportation exhibit significantly positive global Moran’ s
I values (
I > 0.13); however, “high–high” clusters comprise only 5% of observations, while over 90% of countries fall into “low–low” or statistically insignificant categories. This pattern reflects a Matthew effect, wherein technological diffusion is dominated by a few leading countries while the majority remain marginal followers, indicating that CCUS innovation diffusion remains at an early stage of “point-based concentration and surface-level insufficiency.” To address these diffusion bottlenecks, it is imperative to establish cross-regional collaborative innovation networks, standardize cross-border permitting systems for CO
2 transport and storage, enhance technological originality and quality orientation, and develop context-specific deployment strategies, thereby enabling CCUS to transition from scale-driven competition toward value-based synergy and equitable global diffusion.