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    基于机器学习的燃煤电厂碳排放研究进展

    Research progress on carbon emissions of coal-fired power plants based on machine learning

    • 摘要: 燃煤电厂是全球能源供应的重要组成,同时也是二氧化碳等温室气体的主要排放源,对气候变化产生了深远影响。精准量化燃煤电厂的发电碳排放,是实现“双碳”目标的关键技术挑战,只有通过可靠的排放量化方法,才能准确掌握排放底数,制定有效的减排路径。近年来,机器学习技术凭借强大的数据建模与预测能力,为这一难题提供了新的解决路径。为此,简要概述了机器学习技术的发展历史与分类,并系统综述了机器学习技术在燃煤电厂碳排放研究中的应用进展与前沿方向。首先,针对传统核算法实时性不足和连续监测系统(Continuous Emission Monitoring Systems,CEMS)成本高、覆盖低的局限性,探讨了预测性排放监测系统(Predictive Emission Monitoring System,PEMS)如何通过机器学习实现碳排放的实时预测与数据修复。其次,分析了基于电力大数据与机器学习技术的电–碳模型,探讨了非侵入式负载监测(Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring,NILM)在多设备精细化碳排放分解的应用潜力,显著提升了排放来源的可解释性。最后,融合卫星遥感与机器学习,实现了燃煤电厂CO2排放的广域反演与异常值重建,实证了卫星监测与地面清单的互补性。相关研究表明:机器学习通过多维技术融合(PEMS-电–碳模型–卫星遥感)推动了碳排放监测向实时化、智能化发展,但仍面临模型泛化性及可解释性等挑战。未来需强化物理模型与数据驱动的协同创新,构建“空–天–地”一体化监测体系,为全球燃煤电厂的低碳转型提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Coal-fired power plants are an important part of the global energy supply and also a major source of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, exerting a profound impact on climate change. Accurately quantifying the carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants is a key technical challenge in achieving the “dual carbon” goals. Only through reliable emission quantification methods can the emission base be accurately grasped and effective emission reduction paths be formulated. In recent years, machine learning technology, with its powerful data modeling and prediction capabilities, has provided a new solution to this difficult problem. For this reason, this article briefly summarizes the development history and classification of machine learning technology, and systematically reviews the application progress and cutting-edge directions of machine learning technology in the research of carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants. Firstly, in view of the limitations of insufficient real-time performance of traditional accounting methods and high cost and low coverage of continuous Emission Monitoring Systems (CEMS), this paper discusses how the Predictive Emission Monitoring System (PEMS) can achieve real-time prediction and data repair of carbon emissions through machine learning. Secondly, the electricity-carbon model based on power big data and machine learning technology were analyzed, and the application potential of Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) in multi-device refined carbon emission decomposition was explored, significantly improving the interpretability of emission sources. Finally, by integrating satellite remote sensing and machine learning, wide-area inversion and outlier reconstruction of CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants were achieved, verifying the complementarity between satellite monitoring and ground-based inventories. Relevant studies have shown that machine learning has promoted the development of carbon emission monitoring towards real-time and intelligence through the integration of multi-dimensional technologies (PEMS-electricity-carbon model-satellite remote sensing), but it still faces challenges such as model generalization and interpretability. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the collaborative innovation of physical models and data-driven approaches, and build an integrated monitoring system of “air-space-ground” to provide technical support for the low-carbon transformation of global coal-fired power plants.

       

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