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    海上二氧化碳地质封存与利用技术评估:现状、潜力与路径

    Technical assessment of chinese offshore carbon dioxide geological storage and utilization: Current situation, potential and pathway

    • 摘要: 我国近海二氧化碳咸水层封存和油田驱油封存技术在实现“双碳”目标方面发挥着至关重要的作用,然而其技术发展路径和政策路线仍不明晰。通过构建适用于中国近海二氧化碳地质封存特征的技术—经济—贡献多维度评价方法,对海上咸水层二氧化碳封存及海上油田驱油封存技术的现状、减排潜力以及其对实现“双碳”目标的贡献进行了系统评估,并提出了技术发展路径。研究结果表明,目前我国海上二氧化碳咸水层和油气田封存技术的成熟度仅为3~4级,距离商业示范及规模化应用仍存在一定差距,实际的减排量(CO2)仅为30万t/a,主要受制于海上高成本、关键技术瓶颈、政策路线欠缺等因素。提出海上二氧化碳地质封存技术的发展应遵循“示范引领—规模推广—集群部署”的渐进式路径,短期内应加强突破核心技术瓶颈,打通产业链条,中长期则重在规模化推广应用。随着规模化应用、技术突破及体系完善等,预计到2060年,海上封存成本将有望降至50~150元/t,其年减排能力将提升至2亿~3亿t,这将为我国实现碳中和目标提供15%~20%的减排贡献,不仅显著增强减排能力,还将助推海洋科技绿色创新与气候治理能力提升。

       

      Abstract: The offshore geological storage and utilization technology for carbon dioxide (CO2) is crucial for China to achieving the national dual carbon goals. However, the technological development pathways and policy roadmap remain unclear. This study develops a multi-dimensional assessment framework, covering technological, economic and contribution-based aspects, which is tailored to the characteristics of offshore CO2 geological storage in China. The framework systematically evaluates the status, storage potential, and emission reduction contribution of CO2 storage in offshore saline aquifers and oil fields towards realizing these dual carbon objectives, while proposing corresponding technological development pathways. The results indicate that the technology readiness level of offshore CO2 storage technologies in saline aquifers and oil fields in China ranges between levels 3 and 4. This highlights a considerable gap before commercial demonstration and large-scale application can be achieved. The current annual emission reductions remain at only 300 thousand tons, constrained by high costs, key technological bottlenecks, and insufficient policy support. We propose a phased development pathway characterized by demonstration-led scale promotion and cluster deployment. In the short term, efforts should focus on overcoming core technical barriers and integrating industrial chains. In the medium to long term, priorities should shift towards scaled application and institutional development. As scale expands, technological advances and systemic improvements, the cost of offshore CO2 storage is projected to decline to 50~150 RMB/tonCO2 by 2060, with an annual storage capacity of 200−300 million tons. This would contribute 15−20% of the cumulative carbon neutrality effort in China, significantly enhancing emission reduction capabilities while also promoting innovation in marine technology and climate governance.

       

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