Abstract:
To address the challenge of technical route selection for green methanol industrialization and clarify the applicable scenarios and development potential of different routes, this study took a 100,000-ton direct green power-connected methanol synthesis project as the research benchmark. It systematically compared and analyzed four technical routes, including biomass gasification synthesis (R1-BtM), biomass-coupled green hydrogen synthesis (R2-BEtM), green hydrogen-coupled renewable carbon capture synthesis (R3-ERCtM), and green hydrogen-coupled non-renewable carbon capture synthesis (R4-ENRCtM), in terms of maturity, regional adaptability, cost composition and electricity price sensitivity. The results show that the maturity of the four technical routes presents a gradient distribution: R1-BtM is the most mature, but it is limited by the seasonal supply bottleneck of biomass raw materials and only suitable for resource-rich areas; R2-BEtM needs to tackle the problem of coupling stability between green hydrogen and biomass gasification systems, and is applicable to areas with combined wind-solar and biomass resources; R3-ERCtM and R4-ENRCtM are in the demonstration stage, where the former gets rid of biomass dependence by virtue of BECCS/DAC technologies and is suitable for large-scale supply scenarios, while the latter has significant cost advantages relying on low-cost industrial carbon capture. Economic calculation results indicate that under the condition of electricity price at 0.2 CNY per kWh, the unit methanol cost of R4-ENRCtM is as low as 4,747 CNY, and further drops to 3,536 CNY when the electricity price decreases to 0.1 CNY per kWh, making it the most industrialization-potential technical route in the short term. The cost of R1-BtM is dominated by raw materials and has the weakest sensitivity to electricity price fluctuation. R3-ERCtM has the worst economic performance at present due to high carbon capture cost. Application scenario analysis shows that green methanol has prominent potential in the marine fuel field, and its economic competitiveness will be further enhanced after the implementation of the IMO "Net Zero Framework" Agreement. In the field of higher alcohol substitution, it does not have cost advantages in the short term, but it has significant environmental benefits. This study can provide a scientific basis for the selection and layout of technical routes for green methanol industrialization, and has important reference value for promoting the realization of dual carbon goals in the energy and chemical industry.