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    新能源直连制备绿色甲醇的技术经济性评价与前景分析

    Techno-economic Evaluation and Prospect Analysis of Green Methanol Production via Direct New Energy Connection

    • 摘要: 为破解绿色甲醇产业化技术路径选型难题,明晰不同路线的适配场景与发展潜力,本研究以10万吨绿电直连合成甲醇项目为基准,系统对比分析生物质气化合成(R1-BtM)、生物质耦合绿氢合成(R2-BEtM)、绿氢耦合可再生碳捕集合成(R3-ERCtM)及绿氢耦合非可再生碳捕集合成(R4-ENRCtM)四条技术路径的成熟度、区域适配性、成本构成及电价敏感性。结果表明:四条技术路径成熟度呈梯度分布,R1-BtM技术最为成熟但受限于生物质原料季节性供应瓶颈,仅适配原料富集区域;R2-BEtM需攻克绿氢与生物质气化系统耦合稳定性难题,适用于风光与生物质资源复合分布区域;R3-ERCtM与R4-ENRCtM处于示范阶段,前者依托BECCS/DAC技术摆脱生物质依赖,适合规模化供应场景,后者凭借低成本工业碳捕集具备显著成本优势。经济性测算显示,年产10万吨甲醇、电价0.2元/千瓦时工况下,R4-ENRCtM吨甲醇成本低至4747元,电价降至0.1元/千瓦时后进一步降至3536 元,为短期最具产业化潜力的技术路线;R1-BtM成本受原料主导,电价敏感性最弱;R3-ERCtM因碳捕集成本偏高,当前经济性最差。应用场景分析表明,绿色甲醇在船用燃料领域潜力突出,IMO“净零框架”协定落地后其经济竞争力将进一步提升;高碳醇替代领域短期不具备成本优势,但环境效益显著。本研究可为绿色甲醇产业化的技术路线遴选与布局提供科学依据,对推动能源化工行业双碳目标实现具有重要参考价值。

       

      Abstract: To address the challenge of technical route selection for green methanol industrialization and clarify the applicable scenarios and development potential of different routes, this study took a 100,000-ton direct green power-connected methanol synthesis project as the research benchmark. It systematically compared and analyzed four technical routes, including biomass gasification synthesis (R1-BtM), biomass-coupled green hydrogen synthesis (R2-BEtM), green hydrogen-coupled renewable carbon capture synthesis (R3-ERCtM), and green hydrogen-coupled non-renewable carbon capture synthesis (R4-ENRCtM), in terms of maturity, regional adaptability, cost composition and electricity price sensitivity. The results show that the maturity of the four technical routes presents a gradient distribution: R1-BtM is the most mature, but it is limited by the seasonal supply bottleneck of biomass raw materials and only suitable for resource-rich areas; R2-BEtM needs to tackle the problem of coupling stability between green hydrogen and biomass gasification systems, and is applicable to areas with combined wind-solar and biomass resources; R3-ERCtM and R4-ENRCtM are in the demonstration stage, where the former gets rid of biomass dependence by virtue of BECCS/DAC technologies and is suitable for large-scale supply scenarios, while the latter has significant cost advantages relying on low-cost industrial carbon capture. Economic calculation results indicate that under the condition of electricity price at 0.2 CNY per kWh, the unit methanol cost of R4-ENRCtM is as low as 4,747 CNY, and further drops to 3,536 CNY when the electricity price decreases to 0.1 CNY per kWh, making it the most industrialization-potential technical route in the short term. The cost of R1-BtM is dominated by raw materials and has the weakest sensitivity to electricity price fluctuation. R3-ERCtM has the worst economic performance at present due to high carbon capture cost. Application scenario analysis shows that green methanol has prominent potential in the marine fuel field, and its economic competitiveness will be further enhanced after the implementation of the IMO "Net Zero Framework" Agreement. In the field of higher alcohol substitution, it does not have cost advantages in the short term, but it has significant environmental benefits. This study can provide a scientific basis for the selection and layout of technical routes for green methanol industrialization, and has important reference value for promoting the realization of dual carbon goals in the energy and chemical industry.

       

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