高级检索

    CCUS碳减排潜力与碳中和贡献研究方法:多尺度优化与实证

    A methodology for CCUS carbon reduction potential and carbon neutrality contribution: multi-scale optimization and empirical exploration

    • 摘要: 二氧化碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)是化石能源与工业领域大规模减排的托底技术。为量化 CCUS 对海南高碳排放企业的碳减排潜力与碳中和贡献,基于福山油田 CO2地质利用与封存示范项目参数、福山凹陷地质资料及海南省大型 CO2点源核查数据,构建了涵盖企业级碳排放核算、区块级封存场地筛选、CCUS 工程技术经济特征分析、基于管道成本曲面的源汇匹配模型及碳减排贡献预测的高精度研究框架,实现公里级及以上尺度的 CCUS 综合分析框架。首次完成海南省 CCUS 技术“封存容量–场地适宜性–技术经济性–集群部署–碳中和路径” 的多维度系统评估。研究表明:海南福山凹陷具备油气藏与咸水层 CO2地质利用与封存的地质条件,重点企业通过 CO2咸水层封存技术可实现平准化成本低于 400 元 /t、捕集量 90% 的碳减排;2060 年前 CCUS 技术对海南企业的净减排贡献累计可达 5.4 亿t,其中 CO2强化石油开采(CO2-EOR)与 CO2强化深部咸水开采(CO2-EWR)技术应用规模分别于 2040 年和 2045 年达峰值。结果为海南碳中和 CCUS 规划提供决策支撑,并为南南国家及岛屿地区通过 CCUS 实现低碳工业发展提供范式参考。

       

      Abstract: CO2 capture, utilization, and geological storage (CCUS) serve as a foundational technology for large-scale emission reduction in the fossil energy and industry sectors. To quantify the carbon abatement potential and contribution to carbon neutrality for high-emission enterprises in Hainan driven by CCUS, we constructed a high-precision research framework that integrates enterprise-level carbon emission accounting, block-level storage site screening, techno-economic characterization of CCUS projects, source-sink matching via pipeline cost surface modeling, and carbon abatement prediction. This framework enables kilometer-scale CCUS integrated analysis, achieving the first multi-dimensional assessment of Hainan’s CCUS technologies. It covers storage capacity, site suitability, techno-economics, cluster deployment, and carbon neutrality pathways. Findings show that the Fushan Sag in Hainan possesses geological conditions for CO2 geological utilization and storage in oil-gas reservoirs and saline aquifers. Key emitters can achieve 90% abatement of total captured CO2 at a levelized cost of <400 CNY/ton via CO2 saline aquifer storage. CCUS technologies are projected to yield a cumulative net abatement of 540 million tons for Hainan’s enterprises by 2060, with CO2-EOR and CO2-EWR applications peaking in 2040 and 2045, respectively. This study provides critical support for Hainan’s CCUS planning toward carbon neutrality and offers a reference for South-South and island nations to integrate CCUS into their decarbonization and industrial development strategies.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回