Abstract: Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is regarded as a critical technology for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal and plays an irreplaceable role in promoting the deep low-carbon transition of coal-fired power plants. Currently, affected by uncertain factors such as electricity prices, carbon prices, and technological innovation, enterprises show low willingness to invest in CCUS projects, and incentive policy instruments suitable for China’s national conditions are urgently needed. For coal-fired power plants targeting low-carbon transition, five typical incentive policies are designed and compared by comprehensively considering multiple uncertain factors including electricity prices, carbon prices, and technological progress. Fiscal incentive policies include upfront investment subsidies and clean electricity price subsidies, while non-fiscal incentive policies cover incremental carbon emission allowances, additional electricity quotas, and tax relief. A CCUS project investment decision model is constructed based on real options theory. Through model solutions, the impacts of different policies on project investment thresholds, optimal investment timing, and subsidy conditions are analyzed, and the policy effects are quantified through numerical simulations.The results demonstrate that clean electricity price subsidies are relatively effective fiscal incentive policies. Investment option value is increased by 44% under the benchmark subsidy level compared with the no-incentive scenario. Critical carbon prices for CCUS project investment are reduced to 81–97 yuan per ton under non-fiscal incentive policies, which are generally lower than those under fiscal incentive policies. The incentive effects of policy portfolios outperform those of individual incentive policies. The large-scale deployment of CCUS should not rely on a single subsidy instrument. Portfolio-based incentive strategies are adopted according to fiscal capacity, carbon market price levels, and emission reduction targets. Fiscal subsidies are rationally combined with market-oriented allowances, tax preferences, and other instruments to effectively lower investment barriers, improve project economic viability, and accelerate the low-carbon transition of coal-fired power plants and the realization of China's carbon neutrality goal.