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    考虑煤电CCUS规模化发展的电力转型路径优化

    Optimization of the power transition pathway considering the large-scale development of coal power with CCUS

    • 摘要: 碳捕集、利用与封存(Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage, CCUS)技术是煤电低碳化发展的重要途径之一,煤电CCUS的规模化发展是电力低碳转型的关键措施之一。基于计及煤电CCUS的电力转型技术-经济-排放仿真模型,在给定的参数条件下对不同的煤电发展路径进行仿真,评估了不同煤电CCUS发展规模下电力转型路径的电力、排放与经济类指标,以总经济代价最小为目标函数比选了最优煤电CCUS发展路径。结果表明:煤电CCUS与新能源的协同发展有潜力降低电力低碳转型的总经济代价;在电力转型优化中不应将某个年份后不再新建煤电作为约束条件,应在给定的参数条件下优化煤电CCUS发展路径并分析其对相关参数的敏感性,并强调应及时根据最新的参数条件更新路径优化结果。

       

      Abstract: Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is one of the crucial approaches for the low carbon development of coal power, and the large-scale development of coal power with CCUS is one of the key measures for the low carbon power transition. Based on a power transition technology-economy-emission simulation model considering coal power with CCUS, the power, emission, and economic indicators of the power transition pathways for different scales of coal-fired power with CCUS are simulated and evaluated under given parameter conditions. The optimal coal-fired power with CCUS development pathway was selected based on the objective of minimizing the overall economic cost. The results indicate that the coordinated development between CCUS and new energy has the potential to reduce the total economic cost of low carbon energy transition. The constraint of no longer building new coal-fired power plants after a certain year should not be included in the optimization of power transition pathway and the development pathway of coal power CCUS should be optimized under given parameter conditions and its sensitivity to relevant parameters should be analyzed. It emphasizes that the pathway optimization results should be updated in a timely manner according to the latest parameter conditions.

       

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