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    新质生产力背景下火电与抽水蓄能规模化协同发展的建模分析

    Modeling analysis on large-scale coordinated development of thermal power and pumped hydro energy storage under new-quality productive forces context

    • 摘要: 为协同开发抽水蓄能、有序规划火电退役规模与时序、促进风光资源整合,确保电力系统向稳定、低碳过渡,探究电力系统转型中多指标、多层次综合效益的问题。以新疆电力系统转型方案为例,构建详细考虑抽水蓄能机组与火电机组运行特性的电力系统机组组合模型。该组合模型根据《新疆维吾尔自治区“十四五”电力发展规划》及《碳达峰碳中和背景下新疆能源(电力)绿色低碳中长期发展研究》有关预测结论,搭建模型制定新疆电网(内需模型)以及新疆电网(内需+外送模型)2大类情景模型,对应6种转型场景模型,结合层次分析法−熵权法建立了经济、技术的综合评价指标体系。结果表明:现阶段在建的抽水蓄能电站无法满足未来新疆电网系统煤耗较大、新能源弃电率较高、电力系统运行经济性较差的特点;当抽水蓄能电站作为新增储能电源时,新能源弃电量、新型储能损失电量、火电的装机容量、煤耗随着新增抽水蓄能电站规模的增加而降低;无论单机容量多大的火电机组参与调峰,势必会产生发电煤耗,且低出力率下的火电机组频繁启停调峰会进一步降低资源利用效率、增加耗煤量。综上所述,2030年新疆电网(仅内需)抽水蓄能合理需求规模(经济规模)在1000万~1500万kW较为合理;2030年新疆电网(内需+外送)抽水蓄能合理需求规模(经济规模)在1500万~2000万kW较为合理。此研究成果可为新型电力系统的构建、抽水蓄能电站的开发、火电的有序退役、风光资源的高效整合提供理论支撑。

       

      Abstract: In order to facilitate the coordinated development of pumped storage hydropower (PSH), planing the scale and timing of thermal power retirement, promoting the integration of wind and solar power, ensuring the stable and low-carbon transition of the power system. An exploration into the multifaceted and multilevel comprehensive benefits within the power system transformation is conducted. Taking the power system transformation program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as an example, a power system simulation model is built with detailed consideration of the operational characteristics of PSH and thermal power. The numerical simulation formulated two categories for the Xinjiang power grid (internal demand model and internal demand + external transmission model), corresponding to six transformation scenario models. Each scenario combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Entropy Weight Method, in order to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system for economic and technical aspects. The results indicated that the current scale of PSH are unable meet the future demands of Xinjiang power grid for orderly thermal power decommissioning and high percentage of renewable energy power abandoning rate. The coal consumption would be generated regardless of the capacity of thermal power participating in peak-regulation. In summary, the reasonable demand scale of PSH for the Xinjiang power grid (internal demand only) is between 10 million kW and 15 million kW, and and for the Xinjiang power grid (internal demand + external transmission) is between 15 million kW and 20 million kW in 2030. The research can provide a theoretical support for the construction of a new-type power system, the orderly development of PSH commissioning and thermal power decommissioning, and the integration of wind and solar power.

       

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