高级检索

    融合数据驱动与启发式算法的煤元素碳含量校验

    Verification on the elemental carbon content of coal by integrating data-driven and heuristic algorithm

    • 摘要: “碳达峰”“碳中和”政策背景下,燃煤发电行业的减排降碳势在必行。提升碳排放数据的质量水平,强化碳排放监管要求,是保障燃煤发电行业降碳成效的必要举措。入炉煤元素碳含量作为碳排放核算过程中的关键参数,对于燃煤发电企业上报的入炉煤元素碳含量数据的校核尤为重要。对此,提出了一种针对入炉煤元素碳含量数据的智能校验方法。首先,收集了近1 000组国内外典型动力煤的工业分析和元素分析数据。其次,融合高斯过程回归和启发式优化算法,基于美国煤质数据集建立了入炉煤元素碳含量的回归预测机器学习模型,模型在训练集和测试集上的回归系数R2分别为0.989 8和0.987 7,体现出优良的拟合与预测能力,实现了对入炉煤元素碳含量数据的精确预测。然后,以中国标准煤样数据、中国典型燃煤机组的煤质分析数据为案例进一步验证了机器学习模型的泛化能力,模型在中国标准煤样数据上的元素碳含量预测平均相对误差仅为1.68%,在典型燃煤机组数据上的预测回归系数为0.987 7,均取得了准确的预测效果,验证了模型对入炉煤元素碳预测的精度与适用性。最后,进一步将该模型部署到了我国某600 MW燃煤发电机组生产过程中,模型预测值与实测值的平均相对误差为0.79%,实现了以班组为频次的入炉煤元素碳含量及时准确监测,助力燃煤发电企业上报的元素碳含量数据校验。

       

      Abstract: Under the national “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutrality” policy, emission reduction in the coal-fired power generation sector is imperative. Improving the quality of carbon emission data and strengthening regulatory oversight are essential measures to ensure effective decarbonization. As a key parameter in carbon emission accounting, the elemental carbon content of as-fired coal is critical for verifying the accuracy of reported data by coal-fired power plants. To address this need, an intelligent verification method for as-fired coal elemental carbon content data is proposed. First, a dataset comprising approximately 1 000 samples of proximate analysis and elemental analysis of typical coals was compiled. Then, a regression-based machine learning model was developed using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) combined with a heuristic optimization algorithm, trained on the US coal quality dataset. The model achieved high predictive performance, with R2 values of 0.989 8 and 0.987 7 on the training and testing sets, respectively, enabling accurate prediction and verification of elemental carbon content. Subsequently, the generalizability of machine learning model was validated using Chinese standard coal samples and coal data from typical Chinese coal-fired units. The model yielded a mean relative error of only 1.68% on standard coal samples and an R2 of 0.987 7 on unit data, demonstrating its accuracy and applicability. Finally, the model was deployed in a 600 MW coal-fired power plant in China, where it achieved a mean relative error of 0.79% between predicted and measured values, enabling timely and accurate monitoring of as-fired coal carbon elemental content at the shift level, and supporting reliable elemental carbon content data reporting for emission accounting.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回